Europe towards 2040:

Charting a course in a new era of conflict and competition

  • Welcome  and introductory remarks

      • Pascal Leardini, Chair of ESPAS; Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Operating Officer, Secretariat-General, European Commission

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    Session One

    • Europe Towards 2040

      Today, strategic foresight is a key tool in strategic planning and policy-making in Europe, and elsewhere in the world. Foresight can help us anticipate, prepare better for the future and shape the future we want, rather than reacting or being driven by events. In this opening session of the conference, European leaders come together to share their insights on Europe’s path to 2040, the challenges ahead of us, the role of foresight in policy-making, and consider ways in which we can make the right strategic choices to ensure our resilience and achieve EU long-term goals. In the years to come, politicians will face enormous challenges in guiding our societies, economies and peoples through turbulent times in an increasingly fragmented world. How can foresight help shape the right policies for the future? How can the European Union demonstrate leadership in an era of uncertainty and rapid change? How can we make sure that today’s strategic choices do no harm to future generations, but instead secure their well-being and opportunities?

      • Glenn Micallef, European Commissioner for Intergenerational Fairness, Culture, Youth and Sport

      • Victor Negrescu, MEP Vice-President, European Parliament

    • Moderator

      • Heather Grabbe, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

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    Session Two

    • In Conversation with

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    Coffee

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    Session Three

    • The world in 2040: What role for Europe?

      The global order is experiencing enormous shifts - from geopolitics to international trade, from technological advance to democratic backsliding. We have entered a new era of global competition and conflict. Old power structures, assumptions and rules are increasingly being questioned, or even crumbling. Emerging new powers, new economic paradigms, and new societal norms are all driving change. With the geopolitical tectonic plates shifting, the rules-based order challenged, old alliances under pressure and new alliances being forged, and continuing warfare on European soil, has Europe’s hour arrived? 
      The EU is an important global player, but its influence may be put to the test by political and economic trends, and its own ability to take the initiative, make decisions and act. How important will internal political unity and agility be to achieving a global Europe? How should Europe equip itself with the necessary tools to develop an effective foreign and security policy? How can Europe navigate and help shape the new, emerging world order? How can the EU establish itself as a smart global power able to build alliances to uphold and modernise the rules-based order, pursue ‘win-win cooperation’, and address the key global challenges, acting with partners where possible and autonomously when necessary? There are different possible futures for Europe’s role in the world, and exploring possible scenarios for these will be at the heart of this session’s discussion.

      • Dr Mika Aaltola, MEP, Member of the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee

      • Mark Leonard, Director, European Council on Foreign Relations

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    Session Four

    • Future of Democracy and Pluralism: How can we reverse illiberal trends?

      Nothing is inevitable until it happens, and predicting democracy’s future is no exception. In 2024, more than one-third of the world’s population lived under authoritarian rule. Sixty countries are now classified as “authoritarian regimes”, and the trends that underpin this reality show little immediate sign of being reversed. The global competition between democratic and illiberal and authoritarian societies is central to current geopolitical shifts and seems likely only to intensify. We are seeing trust in democratic institutions being eroded, social media fuelling polarisation within our societies, social and economic inequalities are on the rise, and people are demanding more effective responses by governments.
      These trends will be further reinforced by the technological revolution, particularly if its benefits are not open to all. Why will strengthening democracy and pluralism matter in the coming decades, and where should we look for answers to democratic backsliding? Some proffer technology as a means of re-connecting citizens with their elected representatives, while others seek to promote a more participatory, 'grassroots' version of democracy. Strengthening resilience and reducing inequalities in societies is also championed. Addressing disinformation will remain a key challenge, with advances in technology making it virtually impossible for citizens to distinguish fake content from truth. How could Europe lead the way in building a new global alliance for advancing democracy?

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    Lunch

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    Session Five

    • Intergenerational Fairness: How to deliver a fairer future for all?

      How often when proposing new policies, or indeed deciding not to act, do we take into account their long-term implications and how they may affect future generations?   For example, deciding on the use of non-renewable natural resources.  Or on climate action – knowing that human-induced climate change will impact all areas of our lives – increasing the risk and severity of extreme weather conditions and natural disasters, as well as climate-triggered conflicts and migration.  In public finance, excessive debt accrued today to meet our needs will limit public policy choices in the future.  Decisions taken today on education policies, the development of new technologies, or migration will have long-term consequences for economic innovation and competitiveness, the labour market and social policy in the coming decades. Decisions on health policies and investment in health research will shape the well-being of future generations and our ability to address challenges related to an ageing population. 
      With increasing understanding of the long-term implications of decisions we take today, and the need to look at these implications in a more coherent way, the concept of Intergenerational Fairness (IGF) is gaining ground. In shaping decisions and policies, we should seek to take into account their impact on future generations, and aim ensure that meeting our current needs does not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The European Commission is currently developing an intergenerational fairness (IGF) strategy, scheduled for publication in early 2026. It is doing so at a time when the narrative is shifting away from conflict between generations towards solidarity and shared responsibility, and to the use of science and foresight to think long-term and create fairer societies. 
      How can this agenda be advanced in practice given the diversity in approaches across the European Union? What we can we learn from pioneers of this approach both in Europe and elsewhere in the world? What new future challenges can we foresee and how can they be addressed? Do we need a new, forward-looking ‘IGF contract’, and what could it look like? 

      • Virginia de Angelis, National Secretary of Planning, The Ministry of Planning and Budget, Brazil

      • Professor Pieter Vanhuysse, Full Professor of Political Economy and Public Policy, Department of Political Science and Public Management and the Danish Centre for Welfare Studies, University of South Denmark

      • Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, Director-General, Education, Youth, Sport and Culture, European Commission

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    Session Six

    • In conversation with

      • Dr Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution

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    Session Seven

    • Artificial Intelligence and quantum: How can the EU get the best out of the transformative technologies?

      Artificial Intelligence (AI) has already transformed the way we communicate and work, opening vast new possibilities for the future. Combined with high-performance computing and advancing quantum technology, AI will become an even more powerful tool with applications across virtually all areas of our life - from business, governance, public discourse, and politics to defence and security. It will enable us to push the frontiers of science - accelerating innovation, efficiency and competitiveness, heralding the 6th Industrial Revolution.   It will challenge us to acquire new skills. Many jobs as we know them today are likely to disappear, others will be transformed and more will be created that require new skills.  The role of management will dramatically change, and so will public governance at all levels. 
      Data analysis, planning, process management and content-processing tasks, as well as interaction with customers, will be automated by AI, increasing efficiency at work.  We will see autonomous transport being rolled out. AI will increasingly be used to help assess risks and predict future developments. Fed by data, AI will know more about us than we might wish!
      Alongside the expanding capabilities and applications of AI will come new challenges – not least how to shape it in a way that serves humanity and aligns with our values?  How can we ensure human control over the technology capable of learning and improving on its own?  How can we prevent its use for criminal and malicious purposes and address the growing problem of “dark AI”?  
      With such far-reaching potential, AI and quantum will play an important role in an increasingly contested geopolitical environment. How can Europe ensure a leading role with strategic autonomy in the global technological race? How can it ensure that regulation will not hinder our competitive advantage? What policies do we need to embrace future opportunities and manage future risks? How can we ensure the transformation will benefit society as a whole, and how can Europe be at the forefront of this challenge?  

      • Ajit Jaokar, Visiting fellow: Department of Engineering Science University of Oxford and Course Director: Artificial Intelligence

      • Ann Mettler, Former Director-General, European Political Strategy Centre; former Vice-President Europe, Breakthrough Energy

    • Moderator

      • Paweł Świeboda, Founder of NeuroCentury, a brain health policy hub; Senior Fellow for Neurotechnology at the Centre for Future Generations

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    Session Eight

    • The ‘Big Future’ - Foresight perspectives

      • Pascal Leardini, Chair of ESPAS; Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Operating Officer, Secretariat-General, European Commission

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    Concluding remarks and close of conference

      • Pascal Leardini, Chair of ESPAS; Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Operating Officer, Secretariat-General, European Commission