Day 1 - Thursday 17 November

THE CHALLENGES OF A NEW ERA: EUROPEAN SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

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    Welcome to the 2022 ESPAS Annual Conference

      • Stephen Quest, Chair of ESPAS and Director-General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

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    Twin digital and green transitions: how can Europeans best play their cards on the global stage?

    On the path towards 2050, a successful twin digital and green transition will largely depend on the ability to deploy existing and new technologies at scale in a context of inter-connected and international supply chains.   
    Russia’s illegal war on Ukraine, with its high disruption of key supplies, will clearly affect Europe’s path to achieving fair, green and digital transitions. In addition, the EU is largely reliant on imports from China across the whole value chain of rare-earth permanent magnets and photovoltaic panels. However, the twin transition can also be an opportunity for the EU to build its strategic autonomy in some critical sectors.  
    Against this backdrop, how can the EU secure its needs to deliver on the twin transitions?  What new alliances should the EU build?  What are the impacts on the economy and EU citizens? 

    • Keynote addresses:

      • Andrej Plenković, Prime Minister of Croatia

      • Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece

    • Panel discussion:

    • Moderator:

      • Stephen Quest, Chair of ESPAS and Director-General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

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    In conversation: The EU and NATO – working together for Europe's security

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    War in Europe: Towards victory in Ukraine and a lasting security

    Security and defence matters are vital to the growing political discourse on the future of Europe. Russia’s war on Ukraine has triggered fundamental questions about Europe’s security and defence priorities, and the tools needed to defend the continent from rising security threats. Russia’s unprovoked aggression in the European neighborhood poses “the most significant and direct threat” to European security. In what ways has Russia’s war on Ukraine changed the geopolitical dynamics in Europe and in the transatlantic space? What vision for the future of EU security and defence is emerging? What are the challenges and opportunities for the transatlantic partnership, and for multilateral relations due to the ongoing war in Ukraine? Has Europe become more dependent on the United States for its defence? What are the implications? What is the future of EU-NATO cooperation, including the impact of Sweden and Finland joining NATO?   

    • Panel discussion:

      • Alina Frolova, Deputy Chairperson of the Center for Defence Studies; former Deputy Minister of Defence, Ukraine

      • Benedetta Berti, Head of Policy Planning, Office of the Secretary-General at NATO

      • Kristi Raik, Director, Estonian Foreign Policy Institute at the ICDS

      • Dick Zandee, Senior Research Fellow, Head of Security Unit, Clingendael Institute

      • Gustav Lindstrom, Director, EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)

    • Moderator

      • Elena Lazarou, Acting Head, External Policies Unit of the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS)

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    LUNCH

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    Transatlantic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific: Can it counterbalance China's rising footprint?

    Strategic competition is rising around the world. China is building a robust defence capability, and is systematically extending its influence across the Pacific. “China challenges our (NATO Allies) interests, security and values” (NATO Madrid Summit Declaration; June 2022). Moreover, Beijing’s military activities may lead to the destabilisation of Taiwan, and may prove to be the next seismic geopolitical crisis we have to face. 
    In light of these developments, new defence alliances such as AUKUS are being constructed. What role does the European Union play and what strategy should it pursue in the region? What should be its long-term objectives, and how best can these be advanced? What should the nature of cooperation be with the United States and NATO in the Indo-Pacific region?  

    • Panel discussion:

      • Veerle Nouwens, Senior Research Fellow, Asia Studies, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

      • Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of International Politics, Keio University, Japan

      • Max Bergmann, Director, Europe Program and Stuart Center, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC

      • Ronja Kempin, Senior Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)

    • Moderator:

      • Eva Pejsova, Japan Chair, Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS), Brussels School of Governance; Associate Fellow, “Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique” (FRS)

  • DIVING INTO THE BATTLE OF IDEAS

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    In conversation: The world after the war in Ukraine

      • Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament

      • Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Foreign Policy program, Brookings Institution; former Deputy Assistant to the US President and Senior Director for European and Russian affairs, National Security Council

    • Moderator:

      • Etienne Bassot, Director, Members' Services, European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS)

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    The future of global competition: the battle of narratives

    The war in Ukraine can be seen as the expression of the accumulated tension between liberal democracies and authoritarian states. Authoritarian regimes are currently weaponising information and digital technologies flaws to weaken western countries narratives through large disinformation campaigns . In parallel, as part of its increasing presence on the global stage, China has been introducing its own competing terms and narratives in international fora about a new global order that suits its own interests.  
    What strategies should the EU develop at the global level? How can we counter large disinformation campaigns? How to win the “battle of ideas”? How can the forces of democracy work together to reverse the drift to authoritarianism?

    • Panel discussion:

      • Jakub Jakóbowski, Senior Fellow, China-EU Programme, Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Warsaw

      • Valeria Kovtun, Head & founder, Filter National Media Literacy Project, Ukraine

      • Emeka Umejei, Lecturer, Communication Studies, University of Ghana

      • Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis, National Endowment for Democracy, Washington DC

      • Laura W., Director for Governance, National Intelligence Council/Strategic Futures Group, United States

    • Moderator:

      • Lutz Guellner, Head of Division, Strategic Communication, European External Action Service (EEAS)

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    The future of democracy in an age of fear and anger

    Thirty years ago, the collapse of Communism and triumph of economic liberalism appeared to vindicate the view that political and economic freedom went hand-in-hand, and that confident democratic systems would be the hallmark of the post-Wall era. Today, although the number of democracies worldwide has never been higher - at over 60 per cent of all countries in 2020 (Our World in Data) - many democratic systems are under obvious strain. A combination of voter disillusion with traditional political parties and declining turn-out have resulted in increasingly volatile elections, with a higher turn-over of parties in power and shorter political careers. The rise of the ‘empowered individual’ using social media - initially seen as opening out democratic discussion - seems to be enflaming political debate, reducing confidence in public institutions and generally making it more difficult to govern. With evidence of successful economies that are undemocratic, matched by a dangerous return to 19th century nationalism unsettling the world order, what is the outlook for democracy at a time of fear and anger? This session will explore a variety of perspectives from Europe and around the world on the future of democracy - and ask how it can be safeguarded and revitalised, at local, regional, national, European and global levels.

    • Opening remarks:

      • Brigid Laffan, Emeritus Professor, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute

    • Panel discussion:

      • Christa Schweng, President, European Economic and Social Committee (EESC)

      • Ayaka Suzuki, Director of the Strategic Planning and Monitoring Unit, Executive Office of the Secretary-General, United Nations

      • Lanxin Xiang, Professor Emeritus, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva; Research Fellow; Harvard Kennedy School, Senior Fellow, Stimson Center, Washington DC.

      • Sophia Russack, Researcher, Institutions unit, Centre for Policy Studies (CEPS)

    • Moderator

      • Anthony Teasdale, former Director General, European Parliamentary Research Service; Visiting Professor, LSE and Columbia University

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    Take away from Day one and close

      • Stephen Quest, Chair of ESPAS and Director-General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

Day 2 - Friday 18 November

THE CHALLENGES OF A NEW ERA: EUROPE AT THE CROSSROADS

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    Welcome and opening remarks

      • Anders Rasmussen, Deputy Secretary-General, and Director-General, European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS)

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    Dealing with a complex, dynamic and uncertain world to secure Europe's future: which tools for policy makers?

    Over the last two years, policymakers have had to deal with multiple, simultaneous and intertwined crises with global dimensions and long-term consequences. This is testing and shaping governance systems as never before. What is the importance of an interdisciplinary approach in this context, generating collective intelligence integrating various disciplines (including natural sciences, economics, humanities and social sciences) to help addressing crises in different sectors (health, civil security/safety, construction, food security, human security, etc.)? How can foresight help build a responsible and adequate response to such complexity? What are the other methods available? How can policy makers make the best use of them? 

    • Panel discussion:

      • Marie Ségur, Research Director, Futuribles

      • Dave Snowden, Director & Founder - The Cynefin Centre; CSO - The Cynefin Company

      • Jeanette Kwek, Head, Centre for Strategic Futures; Director, Futures Directorate PMO Strategy Group, Government of Singapore

      • Koji Saeki, Director General, NISTEP (National Institute of Science and Technology Policy), Japan

      • Jaana Tapanainen-Thiess, Secretary General, Government Report on the Future and Government Foresight Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Finland

    • Moderator:

      • Shada Islam, Director, New Horizons Project; Fellow at the Vrije University Brussels; Visiting Professor, College of Europe

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    How to fix the EU and global energy emergency without wrecking the climate objectives?

    Very high levels of energy use, mostly from fossil fuels, are at the core of the unprecedented development of richer countries. While the European Green Deal had been signalling a steady shift away from these sources of energy, Russia’s illegal war on Ukraine has changed the dynamics radically and suddenly. What does this mean for the energy transition and the future of low carbon sources of energy in the EU and around the world? Where can we go in the long-term to ensure energy security, safety, decarbonisation and strengthened European autonomy in this highly politically sensitive policy sector? How to relate the above changes to the welfare and the needs of modern societies at the European and global level? How do we ensure short-term decisions do not hamper Europe’s capacity to engage in a sustainable transition? 

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    Feeding the world? Europe and the future of food security

    While Russia’s attack on Ukraine is creating an immediate risk for food security around the world, climate change and the rich world’s dietary habits are the source of even more profound longer-term threats. Food systems are at the core of human survival and are intrinsically linked to many policy domains (energy, industry, environment, agriculture, land use, finance, etc.), putting them at the core of any sustainability transition. How can the international community work together on this issue? What new threats should we be preparing for? What are the key long-term challenges for the EU in securing sustainable food supplies? How do they relate to geopolitics, the planetary boundaries, resilience?

    • Opening remarks:

      • Maurizio Martina, Deputy Director-General, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

    • Panel discussion:

      • Ruth Oniang’o, Founder and Editor-in-Chief, African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development;  academic expert in food security and nutrition, Kenya

      • Andreas Zynga, Chief Executive Officer of EIT Food

      • Maria Nyman, Secretary General of Caritas Europa

      • Alina Gainusa-Bogdan, Head Research Scientist at Climate42

    • Moderator:

      • Claus Haugaard Sørensen, Special Advisor, Crisis prevention, humanitarian, and development policy, Center for Global Development

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    The EU and global health challenges

    The COVID-19 crisis shocked nations around the world. In doing so, it sent ripples through the entire international system, highlighting the interlinkages of health with numerous major policy fields, especially for EU foreign policy. These ripple effects are particularly evident in terms of security of supply, for example for medical countermeasures, treatments, vaccines, medtech, etc. However, it is also important to consider the impact on Europe's ability to address demands, for instance in terms of delivering adequate healthcare both during crises and in the face of a changing health landscape. Moreover, global health encompasses both multilateral and bilateral relations to promote and safeguard the EU's population, as well as action to support health in partner countries, such as through humanitarian and development assistance, outbreak response, and vaccination. Challenges exist along all four of these axes, not least due to geopolitical tensions, but also due to rising healthcare costs, an ageing population, a rise in non-communicable diseases, and environmental pressure due to climate change. In view of the increasing globalisation of public health, some questions arise when considering the longer term future of EU global health action. How can the EU balance the advantages and disadvantages of the globalisation of public health? How can the EU's health supply chains be secured in the face of various future geopolitical challenges? How can the new international cooperation channels opened by the Covid-19 pandemic contribute to tackling other global health challenges? How can the EU effectively play a strong role in global health in the way it would like to with its existing capabilities? 

    • Panel discussion:

      • Oxana Domenti, World Health Organization (WHO) Representative to the EU

      • Ilona Kickbush, Founder and Chair, International Advisory Board, Global Health Centre, Geneva

      • Delia Grace, Natural Resources Institute, UK

      • Milka Sokolović, Director General, European Public Health Alliance

    • Moderator:

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    LUNCH

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    The future of technology: key suppliers, new value chains and disruptive tech

    Scientific advance and technological development are crucial to ensure both the strategic autonomy of the EU and the sustainability of the industrial sectors. Demand for raw materials, processed materials, components and assemblies for technologies assisting the green transition is expected to grow at an unprecedented rate but is facing limits. In parallel, the EU remains heavily dependent on supplies from third countries, primarily China, for critical materials and components. This session will address a set of issues, such as, inter alia:  What paradigm shift would be needed in order to ensure new values chains and address critical dependencies? How to ensure that industrial sector can flourish in a world of resource scarcity and geopolitical instability? Is it possible to combine sustainability, environment protection and the use of digital technologies? 

    • Panel discussion:

      • Janez Potočnik, Co-Chair of the UNEP International Resource Panel

      • Joanna Kulczycka, Professor, AGH University of Science and Technology; Director, the Highway to Technology, the Innovation Institute; and President of the Waste Management and Recycling Cluster, Poland

      • Bruce Stokes, Executive Director, Transatlantic Task Force, German Marshall Fund (GMF), Washington DC

      • Hans van der Loo, Chair, Advisory Board, Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER), Chair Blue Cooling Initiative

      • Olivier Rousseaux, Director, Venture Development, IMEC

    • Moderator:

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    The future of capitalism and global welfare

    Strong macro-economic dynamics (mostly liberal economic policies) have guided at least the last five decades of global economic development (the free market and globalisation, for example). Today, we can see some of the adverse consequences of some of these developments (socio-economic inequality (between and within nations), climate change, environmental degradation, resource scarcity, etc.) that threaten humanity’s future. This has generated a global debate on possible different economic models at national and supra-national level. Wildly different views compete for attention. What dynamics in this debate are the most significant? What are the toughest constraints in reforming the global economic system? How could a paradigm shift be effected, assuming there is demand? What should be the main objectives of any proposed new economic models? How can we ensure that economic and social disparities can be minimised in this context? 

    • Opening remarks:

      • Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

    • Panel discussion:

      • Kate Raworth, Senior Visiting Research Associate, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford; Author of Doughnut Economics; Co-founder of Doughnut Economics Action Lab.

      • Timothée Parrique, Researcher at the School of Economics and Management, University of Lund, Sweden. Author of ‘Ralentir ou périr. L’économie de la décroissance’ (2022)

      • Franck Debié, Director, Library and Knowledge Services, European Parliamentary Research Service

    • Moderator:

      • Dimitri Lorenzani, Member of Cabinet, European Commission Vice-President, Maroš Šefčovič

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    The future of the EU, strategic foresight and the role of ESPAS

    Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there is a new geopolitical order emerging in global politics where the future role of the EU is under question. The shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics demands that we have a greater understanding of different global perspectives as they will help the European Union to position itself for the world of tomorrow. 
    Since its inception over a decade ago, ESPAS has become a focal point in the EU for the development of strategic foresight.  Three global trends reports have been published (2012, 2015, 2019), with a fourth scheduled for early 2024. Report ESPAS has been a catalyst for the promotion of foresight as a tool in policy-making across EU institutions and organisations, and has spawned inter-institutional collaboration in the field  Work on this next edition of the ESPAS Global Trends Report has begun, thinking through key issues on which to draw up ideas papers. This conference – the tenth so far - will hopefully prove to have been a useful opportunity to examine critical global perspectives on trends to help nourish our thinking and analysis.  
    Furthermore, the development of a successful international dimension to the work of ESPAS is a goal shared by all nine of its EU partner institutions and bodies.  ESPAS recognises that the EU needs to be outward-facing, engaged with partners, countries, and organisations, as well as be alert to perspectives of others around the globe with whom there may be less in common. ESPAS intends to broaden its interface with others outside Europe, in a light, flexible, non-bureaucratic process that reflects the ESPAS philosophy itself. For this purpose, ESPAS will undertake outreach in the framework of a dialogue to be known as the International Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ISPAS). 

    • Panel discussion:

      • Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament

      • Stephen Quest, Chair of ESPAS and Director-General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

      • Didier Seeuws, Director-General, General and Institutional Policy, General Secretariat, Council of the EU

      • Hervé Delphin, Acting Director, Strategic Communication and Foresight, European External Action Service (EEAS)

    • Moderator:

  • Closing remarks: