ESPAS – at the heart of EU foresight
About ESPAS
The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is an inter-institutional EU process promoting foresight and anticipatory governance. It brings together nine EU institutions and bodies who are committed to thinking longer term about the challenges and opportunities facing Europe and, through foresight, to support policy-makers to make the right policy choices.
We live in an era of rapid and sometimes frightening change, and of growing complexity and uncertainty. Stability, prosperity and democracy are no longer a given. To meet the expectations of citizens and communities, responsible governance is necessary to help prepare better for the future, mitigate major risks and build up capabilities. This is where strategic foresight comes into its own.
In times of increasingly rapid change, growing complexity and critical uncertainty, responsible anticipatory governance is vital to preparing for the unexpected. Strategic Foresight is required whenever there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding changes to the relevant future context. By mainstreaming foresight techniques and processes in policy-making, Europe can make informed choices about the future and the lives and well-being of its citizens.
In the decade or so since it was established, ESPAS has led the way in forging a new culture of foresight in the EU. Many ESPAS partner organisations have developed their own foresight capacity as they came to see the benefits of using this for better policy-making.
ESPAS is currently engaged in a number of exciting, forward-looking projects, drawing on the collective talent from amongst its members. These include:
- A major Global Trends Report, due for publication in 2024.
- A new horizon scanning project identifying 'weak signals' of change.
- A new international dialogue on foresight to compare analysis of global trends and their potential implications for policy-making.
- An Annual Conference bringing together political figures and experts from around the world.
- A 'Young Talent Network' to develop foresight literacy amongst young professionals in the EU.
- A series of Ideas Papers to stimulate discussion on the future across the policy spectrum.
Enjoy browsing our website. For more information on ESPAS activities and foresight in the European Union, please contact us at ESPAS.Secretariat@europarl.europa.eu.
Foresight is much more about shaping the future than predicting it.
Global Trends to 2040:
Choosing Europe’s
future
Launch of the 2024
ESPAS Global Trends Report
Monday 15 April 2024, 16:30-18:00 CET
The 2024 ESPAS Global Trends Report, ‘Global Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe’s Future’ was launched at an event in the European Parliament on Monday 15 April.
You can watch the recording of the launch here.
This is the fourth ESPAS global trends report since the establishment of this inter-institutional EU foresight process in the early 2010s. As on previous occasions, it is being published in a year when the European Union embarks on a new five-year institutional cycle. The report analyses the key global trends and their possible impact on the Union, and sets out some strategic choices and questions that Europe's leaders may need to address in the coming five years and beyond. The report is the product of a unique collaborative process over the past year involving officials from across the nine ESPAS institutions and bodies.
Programme
- 16:30
-
Welcome by Anders RASMUSSEN, Deputy Secretary-General and Director-General of the European Parliamentary Research Service (DG EPRS), European Parliament
Opening remarks by Maroš ŠEFČOVIČ, Executive Vice-President for the Green Deal, Inter-institutional Relations and Foresight, European Commission, and
Marc ANGEL, MEP, Vice-President of the European Parliament with responsibility for ESPAS - 17:00
-
Presentation of the report by Stephen QUEST, Chair of ESPAS, Director-General Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission
Followed by a roundtable discussion with:
- Anders RASMUSSEN
- Stephen QUEST
- Aude MAIO-COLICHE, Director for Strategic and Foresight Communication, European External Action Service (EEAS)
- Christiane HÖHN, Head of Unit – Analysis and Research, Council of the European Union
Questions and comments from the floor
- 18:00
-
End of the event
2023 ESPAS Annual Conference
"Building Europe's Future: Time for Strategic Choices."
Tuesday 14 November 2023
The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) was held on Tuesday 14 November. As in previous years, it was co-hosted by the European Commission and the European Parliament.
At a time when an illegal and unprovoked war continues to rage on European soil and ahead of the next EU institutional cycle, this year’s 11th ESPAS annual conference focused on the key global trends at the crossroads of geopolitics, the environment, technology, the economy, and democracy. We debated, inter alia, the growing linkages between stability, security and the economy, the global tech race and future social, economic and environmental fairness, and digital technologies and their impact on democracy. We also mapped the related strategic choices for Europe in the period to 2040.
This year’s conference "Building Europe's future: time for strategic choices" will be a stepping stone in the journey towards the fourth ESPAS Global Trends Report, due to be published in February 2024. We hope this conference will help to shape the public debate in the lead-up to the European Parliament elections in 2024, and offer citizens a forward-looking perspective for Europe.
Please get in touch if you have any questions ESPAS.Secretariat@europarl.europa.eu.
ESPAS Annual Conference, 14 November 2023
Building Europe's Future: Time for Strategic Choices
Building Europe's Future
What will power look like in 2040? Fragmentation and power shifts
Globalisation and deglobalisation: the future of economic power
Conference 2023 – Some visual takeaways
Foresight publications
- European Committee of the Regions: 'Embracing Uncertainly: Harnessing Strategic Foresight for Regional and Local Progress'
February 2024 - Atlantic Council: "Global Foresight Report 2024"
January 2024 - Council of the EU General Secretariat: 'Forward Look 2024: Managing uncertainty'
January 2024 - European Parliamentary Research Service: 'Ten issues to watch in 2024'
January 2024
- European Economic and Social Committee:
The impact of green and digital transitions on the role of the EU organised civil society: Scenarios of EU civil society in 2050
November 2023 - Committee of the Regions Opinion:
Strategic foresight as an instrument of EU governance and better regulation
October 2023 - OECD working paper:
'Supporting decision making with strategic foresight: An emerging framework for proactive and prospective governments'
September 2023 - European Parliament
'Future Shocks 2023 Anticipating and weathering the next storms'
July 2023 - European Commission 2023 Strategic Foresight Report
'Sustainability and wellbeing at the heart of Europe's Open Strategic Autonomy'
July 2023 - European Commission JRC Science for Policy Report
'Towards a fair and sustainable Europe 2050: Social and economic choices in sustainability transitions'
July 2023 - ESPAS Horizon Scanning:
Emerging issues for EU policymaking
June 2023 - EESC Opinion on 2022 European Commission Strategic Foresight Report
March 2023 - Council of the European Union General Secretariat:
Forward Look 2023
January 2023
- Global Semiconductor Trends and the Future of EU Chip Capabilities
October 2022 - ESPAS Ideas Paper on the Geopolitics of Health
July 2022 - Future Shocks 2022:
Addressing risks and building capabilities for Europe in a contested world
April 2022 - European Commission Strategic Foresight Report 2022:
'Twinning the green and digital transition in the new geopolitical context' - Joint Research Centre's Science for Policy Report:
'Towards a green and digital future. Key requirements for successful twin transitions in the European Union' - ESPAS Ideas Paper on Populism
December 2021 - ESPAS Global Trends Mid-Term Report:
The Global Future – An Update
November 2021 - European Commission 2021 Strategic foresight report :
The EU’s capacity and freedom to act - Joint Research Centre (JRC)’s Science for policy report :
‘Shaping & securing the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond’ - ESPAS report 2019 :
Global Trends to 2030
April 2019
About ESPAS
An Inter-institutional EU Project
The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is an inter-institutional EU process promoting foresight and anticipatory governance. It brings together nine EU institutions and bodies who are committed to thinking longer term about the challenges and opportunities facing Europe and, through foresight, to support policy-makers to make the right policy choices.
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